Dundon may be willing to take the deal to the edge. Portland should not try to beat him at brinkmanship. Here's what the city should do. 🧵

1/ Dundon’s leverage comes from patience, ambiguity and a willingness to let public officials feel the deadline more intensely than he does. Portland’s answer should not be louder threats. It should be a clear, public and credible price of yes.

2/ City Council should publish the complete deal it is prepared to approve. Not another list of concerns. Not “negotiate harder.” A coherent public offer that says: We support the renovation. We support public investment. We want the Blazers to stay. Here are the terms that earn our vote.

3/ The City’s current draft already contains important protections: • a cap on public funding • owner responsibility for overruns • maintenance obligations • guarantees • non-relocation remedies • labor and community benefits Council should preserve those provisions.

4/ But the draft still lacks a complete economic exchange. It needs: • fixed, secured private capital • a dependable annual public return • a share of revenue created by the renovation • protection of parking and naming-rights value • a private match for future capital

5/ The most important rule: The exact numbers are negotiable. The existence of protections is not. Council should establish the required categories, then let the negotiating team trade dollars, % and structures—as long as the final package delivers equivalent public value.

6/ Start by defining what the public is buying. Every renovation item should be classified: A: Core public asset B: Shared modernization C: Team-exclusive or principally revenue-generating Public funds can cover A and an appropriate share of B. Ownership funds 100% of C.

7/ So taxpayers can appropriately fund structural work, accessibility, baseline building systems and shared public facilities. They should NOT be quietly paying for premium clubs, luxury suites, branded hospitality, team offices or sponsorship infra that creates private $.

8/ Require real owner capital. Not maintenance already owed. Not ticket fees paid by fans. Not public taxes routed through the project. Not penalties that arise only if something goes wrong. Actual, secured private money committed before public funds are drawn.

9/ Give the public a return. If hundreds of millions in public capital increase suite revenue, sponsorship value, naming rights, premium seating and non-NBA event income, the public should participate in that upside. The operator can retain most of it. But not ALL of it.

10/ Match the team commitment to public liability. The lease and non-relocation protection should last through the later of: • a long fixed term • or the final maturity of the public renovation debt Portland should never pay for the arena after the team’s commitment expires.

11/ Keep Rose Quarter development rights out of the deadline bargain. Those rights may be among Portland’s most valuable assets. Any land, option, veto or development control should be separately appraised and exchanged for measurable consideration.

12/ Require ownership to respond term by term. “Non-starter” is not a counteroffer. For each provision: Accept. Counter. Reject. If ownership rejects private capital, public return, maintenance funding or relocation security, it should explain what it opposes and why.

13/ Establish a public walk-away standard. We need: • fixed private participation • defined scope • no public overruns • direct public return • funded maintenance • debt-matched retention • transparent final contracts Without a walk-away, Portland has no leverage.

14/ This strengthens negotiators. The Mayor & staff tell ownership: “These are not personal preferences. They are the conditions required for Council approval.” That gives the City a credible constraint and shifts pressure toward the party rejecting a full, reasonable offer.

15/ Portland should not negotiate against itself because December is approaching. The deadline should create urgency for both sides—not convert unfinished terms into permanent public risk. Council’s leverage is greatest before its vote and funding commitment become binding.

16/ The message should be simple: Portland is prepared to make a major investment in its publicly owned arena and keep the Blazers here for the long term. But public investment must purchase public value. This is not a threat to the team. It is Portland’s price of yes.

Reasonable people can disagree about the precise financial terms of a renovation. They should NOT disagree that Council has a responsibility to clearly define the objectives it expects its negotiators to pursue before committing hundreds of millions of dollars in public resources.